by Christian Corona
http://247sports.com/Bolt/Why-Greg-Ward-Jrs-Heisman-chances-are-better-than-they-seem-46540257
What a year Greg Ward Jr. had.
The junior passed for 2,827 yards and 17 touchdowns while completing 67.0% of his passes and getting picked off just six times in 345 attempts for a minuscule interception rate of 1.7%. He was just as, possibly more, dangerous running the ball as Ward rushed for 1,114 yards and 21 touchdowns — the fifth-most in the country.
Only Heisman winner Derrick Henry, FBS career rushing touchdowns record holder Keenan Reynolds and All-Americans Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette ran for more scores than Ward. In fact, 10.6% of Ward’s 197 carries in 2015 ended with him in the end zone, the highest rushing touchdown rate of anyone in the country with at least 100 rushes last season.
The EPA (Expected Points Added) metric used here was also impressed. Ward racked up 78.93 adjusted pass EPA and averaged 0.27 adjusted pass EPA per attempt, the 33rd-most and 29th-most in the country, respectively. His rushing efforts ranked even higher. Ward’s 31.57 adjusted rush EPA was No. 13 in the nation and his 0.19 adjusted rush EPA per attempt was No. 19, making him just one of six players in the Top 20 for both of those categories.
Possibly the most impressive number Ward put up last year was zero — the number of times he lost in 13 starts for the Cougars last year. In Tom Herman’s first year as Houston’s head coach, he and Ward led Houston on an incredible run. The Cougars went 13-1, their only loss coming by three points on the road against UConn when Ward was unable to start due to an ankle injury suffered the previous week. Ward scored at least two touchdowns in every game he was healthy last season.
While the Heisman voters have been kind to dual-threat quarterbacks in recent seasons, with one taking the stiff-armed trophy home four of the last six years, Ward’s current Heisman odds stand at 50-to-1, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. That’s tied for the 21st-best in the country with five others (Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd, North Carolina running back Elijah Hood, Wisconsin running back Corey Clement, Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and Michigan defensive back Jabrill Peppers).
Houston loses its top receiver from last year in Demarcus Ayers, who had 98 catches — tied for the sixth-most in the nation — for 1,222 yards and six scores in 2015. The Cougars also lose three starting offensive linemen from a year ago and are projected to take a step back in 2016, according to the model used here to rate every FBS team and project every FBS game this upcoming season.
But Houston brings back six of its top seven pass-catchers from 2015 and isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year. Herman and Ward have put the Cougars on the map. They have a tall task ahead of them in their season opener against Oklahoma, the defending Big 12 champions and the No. 5 team in the preseason model. But the game is in Houston at NRG Stadium, and if Houston can find a way to pull off an upset of the Sooners, it could put Ward in a position to seriously contend for the Heisman Trophy early in the season.
In short, Ward may have a much better shot at winning the Heisman than his current 50-to-1 odds indicate.
http://247sports.com/Bolt/Why-Greg-Ward-Jrs-Heisman-chances-are-better-than-they-seem-46540257
What a year Greg Ward Jr. had.
The junior passed for 2,827 yards and 17 touchdowns while completing 67.0% of his passes and getting picked off just six times in 345 attempts for a minuscule interception rate of 1.7%. He was just as, possibly more, dangerous running the ball as Ward rushed for 1,114 yards and 21 touchdowns — the fifth-most in the country.
Only Heisman winner Derrick Henry, FBS career rushing touchdowns record holder Keenan Reynolds and All-Americans Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette ran for more scores than Ward. In fact, 10.6% of Ward’s 197 carries in 2015 ended with him in the end zone, the highest rushing touchdown rate of anyone in the country with at least 100 rushes last season.
The EPA (Expected Points Added) metric used here was also impressed. Ward racked up 78.93 adjusted pass EPA and averaged 0.27 adjusted pass EPA per attempt, the 33rd-most and 29th-most in the country, respectively. His rushing efforts ranked even higher. Ward’s 31.57 adjusted rush EPA was No. 13 in the nation and his 0.19 adjusted rush EPA per attempt was No. 19, making him just one of six players in the Top 20 for both of those categories.
Possibly the most impressive number Ward put up last year was zero — the number of times he lost in 13 starts for the Cougars last year. In Tom Herman’s first year as Houston’s head coach, he and Ward led Houston on an incredible run. The Cougars went 13-1, their only loss coming by three points on the road against UConn when Ward was unable to start due to an ankle injury suffered the previous week. Ward scored at least two touchdowns in every game he was healthy last season.
While the Heisman voters have been kind to dual-threat quarterbacks in recent seasons, with one taking the stiff-armed trophy home four of the last six years, Ward’s current Heisman odds stand at 50-to-1, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. That’s tied for the 21st-best in the country with five others (Tennessee running back Jalen Hurd, North Carolina running back Elijah Hood, Wisconsin running back Corey Clement, Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and Michigan defensive back Jabrill Peppers).
Houston loses its top receiver from last year in Demarcus Ayers, who had 98 catches — tied for the sixth-most in the nation — for 1,222 yards and six scores in 2015. The Cougars also lose three starting offensive linemen from a year ago and are projected to take a step back in 2016, according to the model used here to rate every FBS team and project every FBS game this upcoming season.
But Houston brings back six of its top seven pass-catchers from 2015 and isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year. Herman and Ward have put the Cougars on the map. They have a tall task ahead of them in their season opener against Oklahoma, the defending Big 12 champions and the No. 5 team in the preseason model. But the game is in Houston at NRG Stadium, and if Houston can find a way to pull off an upset of the Sooners, it could put Ward in a position to seriously contend for the Heisman Trophy early in the season.
In short, Ward may have a much better shot at winning the Heisman than his current 50-to-1 odds indicate.
