This idea was conceived when it looked like there was a better chance that CCG deregulation would occur than it looks like at present. This depends at least on part on the pieces falling into place. But if they do...
I think the AAC should look very hard at trying again at westward expansion, except that it should jump in with both feet instead of trying to do what it did before.
The basic idea is that there are some real solid programs out west that are tied to some pretty mediocre programs or, in BYU's case, not in an ideal situation for other reasons. And so we should approach these schools about forming a new western division and going to a three-division setup. The top two division winners would then play in the CCG and be virtually assured of a NY6 bowl game just about every year. Almost every year, there would be at least two programs that, if they won a CCG, would get into the NY6.
Which Teams?
This is subject to negotiation, but my hit-list would go: BYU, Boise State, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State but only if BYU declines, UNLV, New Mexico, Fresno State and UTEP. The last three - for what would presumably though not necessarily be the last slot) are especially close. But those are the schools that offer market, performance, or both.
So Three Divisions of Six?
Probably, but not necessarily. You could consider going to eight for the western division if there are no rules requiring roughly equal divisions. That would make the western part a conference unto themselves in many respects, but would still help place teams in more ideal bowl games. I currently favor six over eight, but both could be considered. The western teams could want eight, and we shouldn't let that get in the way of this.
How Would The Championship Game Work?
Assuming that the conference has flexibility, it would be determined almost entirely on CFP ranking. For who wins the division you might use other criteria, but the eye would be towards the two teams most likely to help the conference put its champion in the best bowl game possible.
How Would Non-Divisional Teams In This Conference Ever Get To Play Each Other?
In a lot of cases they wouldn't, or rather would only rarely. But that's okay! I would propose that scheduling keep this into account and that we simply not worry about it. Instead, every school would play their division and then the best teams against the best teams. This would be accomplished two ways: First, by letting schools schedule some of their interdivisional matchups. If there are three interdivisional games, they'd be allowed to schedule one game against an opponent in each remaining division, and unfilled games would be based on performance. That way, Houston could schedule games against BYU, or if they don't would be more likely to play a Cougar Cup more frequently anyway.
What About Non-Football? That's A Lot of Travel!
It is indeed a lot of travel. Especially for the western teams. There would be the option of bringing them in for football only and allowing them to set up an American West Conference for other sports. They could invite Seattle, Denver, and other non-football programs to get up to an appropriate number. Or, if there were eight, they might not need to. Or might choose to have eight plus two. Or we could simply accept that there is going to be a lot of travel. Hawaii, at least, is not a part of the equation. I honestly prefer the latter as I think it would make for a more stable conference, but again the goal would be getting the western states on board.
Western Expansion Didn't Work Before! Why Would It Work Now?
Before, the AAC tried to put its toe in the pond without committing to the project. This left Boise State and SDSU in a bad situation. I honestly thought it was a mistake for them to agree to it in the first place. But this I believe represents a much better deal. First of all, they would not have to find other arrangements for non-FB sports. Or, if they went the AWC route, it would at least be a much better arrangement with peer schools instead of a conference renting out space to them. Second of all, they would have a lot more regionally appropriate schools instead of one regional opponent a year.
Wouldn't Boise State and BYU Be Taking A Pay Cut? Why Would They?
The potential TV deal would be a big part of the feasibility of this plan, but I am reasonably optimistic that the conference would get a considerably nicer payday and have more money to work with. Further, and perhaps more controversially, I think that payout should look like the MWC model where the more you're on TV the more money you make. Well, something in between as the disparities in the MWC are pretty bad. Having more money to work with, I think there's a good chance that there would be a high enough floor that it would represent no pay cut to the Tulanes and Tulsas. Other schools would simply get more.
I am optimistic about the TV deal because it would make the new AAC the only G5 that matters, and would provide programming from noon until midnight as a flagship for CBSSN or NBCSN or keep ESPN from having programming gaps caused by increased migration to conference networks.
This still might require a bit of a pay cut for BYU, but it would present BYU with a direct path to a NY6 game and, with the scheduling system in place and a championship game, a possible road to the CFP. Their scheduling as it exists is worse than ours. They presently have nothing to play for except a pre-arranged bowl game. They lost their coach to Virginia and I think this is part of why they did. They might be willing to take a slight pay cut to get out of that situation as it doesn't look like the Big 12 is going to come calling. I think it would likely be a wash for Boise State.
Wouldn't That Mean Cutting NY6 Bowl Money More Ways?
Yes, but the payout would be more consistent. It should, in fact, be very consistent. So I see it as a push.
What Happens If the Big 12 Takes Two AAC Teams?
Well, that might make it a bit of a more difficult sell for the western schools. But I don't think it would kill it. Replace (worst case for us) Cincinnati and Memphis with Northern Illinois and UTSA (or Southern Miss or even Marshall) and move on. The AAC would still be the only G5 conference of relevance and I think the AAC would still be on part with the MWC minus-two-plus-two programs so long as the conference doesn't go all sentimental and take up Rice or something.
What If There Is No CCG Deregulation?
Things become tougher. It depends on the particulars and some NCAA rules I am not sure about. At least theoretically, the conference could split into just two divisions but schedule as though there are three. Sort the central division teams by competitiveness to maximize the odds that you're not stacking the good teams in a particular division, but all of the central teams would play one another to keep regional interest.
I'm not thrilled about that plan, and it probably wouldn't work. But it would be a possibility. However, if the goal of blocking the Big 12's plans is to prevent them from putting all three divisions in the same division, some accommodation for three divisions slip by the rules. In spirit, it's closer to having two divisions than what the Big 12 and ACC are asking for. Unlike the CUSA-MWC merger plans, it doesn't require another game. It might get some support from the P5 programs who might prefer having only one defacto "other" conference to concern themselves with (and increasing the likelihood of the NY6 team being an AAC program instead of a MAC one, which would be to their benefit).
They might see things differently and cut no slack, though. I'm the first to admit that this idea was stronger when it looked like the odds of complete deregulation were better.
What Would Happen To The MWC?
Not our problem, really, but unlike the WAC I would expect them to survive. If we take six, they would have seven remaining programs (assuming UTEP and Rice don't happen). There are two programs (Idaho and NMSU) dying to get in, and another (Texas State) that would probably be interested even if the conference were weakened. If we take eight... it gets tougher. Getting Texas State would go from being "nice" to being "essential." They'd need to pitch Big Sky schools pretty hard. But... not our problem.
I think the AAC should look very hard at trying again at westward expansion, except that it should jump in with both feet instead of trying to do what it did before.
The basic idea is that there are some real solid programs out west that are tied to some pretty mediocre programs or, in BYU's case, not in an ideal situation for other reasons. And so we should approach these schools about forming a new western division and going to a three-division setup. The top two division winners would then play in the CCG and be virtually assured of a NY6 bowl game just about every year. Almost every year, there would be at least two programs that, if they won a CCG, would get into the NY6.
Which Teams?
This is subject to negotiation, but my hit-list would go: BYU, Boise State, Air Force, San Diego State, Colorado State, Utah State but only if BYU declines, UNLV, New Mexico, Fresno State and UTEP. The last three - for what would presumably though not necessarily be the last slot) are especially close. But those are the schools that offer market, performance, or both.
So Three Divisions of Six?
Probably, but not necessarily. You could consider going to eight for the western division if there are no rules requiring roughly equal divisions. That would make the western part a conference unto themselves in many respects, but would still help place teams in more ideal bowl games. I currently favor six over eight, but both could be considered. The western teams could want eight, and we shouldn't let that get in the way of this.
How Would The Championship Game Work?
Assuming that the conference has flexibility, it would be determined almost entirely on CFP ranking. For who wins the division you might use other criteria, but the eye would be towards the two teams most likely to help the conference put its champion in the best bowl game possible.
How Would Non-Divisional Teams In This Conference Ever Get To Play Each Other?
In a lot of cases they wouldn't, or rather would only rarely. But that's okay! I would propose that scheduling keep this into account and that we simply not worry about it. Instead, every school would play their division and then the best teams against the best teams. This would be accomplished two ways: First, by letting schools schedule some of their interdivisional matchups. If there are three interdivisional games, they'd be allowed to schedule one game against an opponent in each remaining division, and unfilled games would be based on performance. That way, Houston could schedule games against BYU, or if they don't would be more likely to play a Cougar Cup more frequently anyway.
What About Non-Football? That's A Lot of Travel!
It is indeed a lot of travel. Especially for the western teams. There would be the option of bringing them in for football only and allowing them to set up an American West Conference for other sports. They could invite Seattle, Denver, and other non-football programs to get up to an appropriate number. Or, if there were eight, they might not need to. Or might choose to have eight plus two. Or we could simply accept that there is going to be a lot of travel. Hawaii, at least, is not a part of the equation. I honestly prefer the latter as I think it would make for a more stable conference, but again the goal would be getting the western states on board.
Western Expansion Didn't Work Before! Why Would It Work Now?
Before, the AAC tried to put its toe in the pond without committing to the project. This left Boise State and SDSU in a bad situation. I honestly thought it was a mistake for them to agree to it in the first place. But this I believe represents a much better deal. First of all, they would not have to find other arrangements for non-FB sports. Or, if they went the AWC route, it would at least be a much better arrangement with peer schools instead of a conference renting out space to them. Second of all, they would have a lot more regionally appropriate schools instead of one regional opponent a year.
Wouldn't Boise State and BYU Be Taking A Pay Cut? Why Would They?
The potential TV deal would be a big part of the feasibility of this plan, but I am reasonably optimistic that the conference would get a considerably nicer payday and have more money to work with. Further, and perhaps more controversially, I think that payout should look like the MWC model where the more you're on TV the more money you make. Well, something in between as the disparities in the MWC are pretty bad. Having more money to work with, I think there's a good chance that there would be a high enough floor that it would represent no pay cut to the Tulanes and Tulsas. Other schools would simply get more.
I am optimistic about the TV deal because it would make the new AAC the only G5 that matters, and would provide programming from noon until midnight as a flagship for CBSSN or NBCSN or keep ESPN from having programming gaps caused by increased migration to conference networks.
This still might require a bit of a pay cut for BYU, but it would present BYU with a direct path to a NY6 game and, with the scheduling system in place and a championship game, a possible road to the CFP. Their scheduling as it exists is worse than ours. They presently have nothing to play for except a pre-arranged bowl game. They lost their coach to Virginia and I think this is part of why they did. They might be willing to take a slight pay cut to get out of that situation as it doesn't look like the Big 12 is going to come calling. I think it would likely be a wash for Boise State.
Wouldn't That Mean Cutting NY6 Bowl Money More Ways?
Yes, but the payout would be more consistent. It should, in fact, be very consistent. So I see it as a push.
What Happens If the Big 12 Takes Two AAC Teams?
Well, that might make it a bit of a more difficult sell for the western schools. But I don't think it would kill it. Replace (worst case for us) Cincinnati and Memphis with Northern Illinois and UTSA (or Southern Miss or even Marshall) and move on. The AAC would still be the only G5 conference of relevance and I think the AAC would still be on part with the MWC minus-two-plus-two programs so long as the conference doesn't go all sentimental and take up Rice or something.
What If There Is No CCG Deregulation?
Things become tougher. It depends on the particulars and some NCAA rules I am not sure about. At least theoretically, the conference could split into just two divisions but schedule as though there are three. Sort the central division teams by competitiveness to maximize the odds that you're not stacking the good teams in a particular division, but all of the central teams would play one another to keep regional interest.
I'm not thrilled about that plan, and it probably wouldn't work. But it would be a possibility. However, if the goal of blocking the Big 12's plans is to prevent them from putting all three divisions in the same division, some accommodation for three divisions slip by the rules. In spirit, it's closer to having two divisions than what the Big 12 and ACC are asking for. Unlike the CUSA-MWC merger plans, it doesn't require another game. It might get some support from the P5 programs who might prefer having only one defacto "other" conference to concern themselves with (and increasing the likelihood of the NY6 team being an AAC program instead of a MAC one, which would be to their benefit).
They might see things differently and cut no slack, though. I'm the first to admit that this idea was stronger when it looked like the odds of complete deregulation were better.
What Would Happen To The MWC?
Not our problem, really, but unlike the WAC I would expect them to survive. If we take six, they would have seven remaining programs (assuming UTEP and Rice don't happen). There are two programs (Idaho and NMSU) dying to get in, and another (Texas State) that would probably be interested even if the conference were weakened. If we take eight... it gets tougher. Getting Texas State would go from being "nice" to being "essential." They'd need to pitch Big Sky schools pretty hard. But... not our problem.
